Prior to ETCSEE 2009 we saw that the economies of several nations in Eastern Europe had entered a period of crisis in the wake of global financial and monetary turmoil. Energy demand was down and customer and supplier credit at a premium. But through a period of market uncertainty lasting into the summer, wholesale power and gas traders did manage to navigate the risky waters of price volatility, liquidity and counterparty risk. In 2010, even if credit contagion has been avoided and market risk is manageable, many policy and regulatory uncertainties remain.
Against this background, the 2010 Energy Trading Central & South Eastern Europe conference will focus on:
• governments and/or TSOs in the region still claim to levy export related charges on electricity transactions and some regulatory authorities make it
troublesome to obtain a national trading licence.
• on top of these distortions and annoyances, neither in CEE nor in SEE is there yet a fully harmonised solution for managing power grid congestion and
allocating transmission capacity on a cross-border basis.
• wrangles continue around the complexity and clear benefits of introducing flow based calculations and transmission profile allocations.
On the other hand there are signs of markets functioning well enough to give traders and generators reasonable signals about where and when to sell, buy or
invest. The value of carbon emission allowances has stabilised and can be factored into forward spreads. The price of gas imports has come down and then
stabilised. For the first time we have witnessed auctions of transmission capacity at the borders of EU countries with Ukraine (albeit uncoordinated.) It looks as
though new investment in gas and hard coal fired plant will materialise throughout the region, while old lignite production is run down and nuclear and hydro
output remain broadly stable.
Meantime especially SEE will remain a region which brings traders clear opportunities for cross border business, on the basis of limited competition within
many countries, mismatches between areas of production and areas of demand, and both seasonal and short-term variations in the availability of peak supply
sources. |